Thursday, August 17, 2017

Nothing change in 323 years - BOE, gold standard and the rest

https://www.ft.com/content/5e5b2fca-7ed0-11e7-ab01-a13271d1ee9c nice chart!

electric vehicle peak charging issue

see the grey area at the bottom of this FT link

https://www.ft.com/content/bbd1f5be-826b-11e7-a4ce-15b2513cb3ff

Bonds, balance sheet recentions and bail outs


https://www.ft.com/content/86e1e87e-81ed-11e7-a4ce-15b2513cb3ff

"banks’ response to the financial crisis turned the normal rules of the bond market upside down. Bondholders typically expect to be paid interest to make up for the risk they might not be paid back. Yet trillions of dollars of debt is trading at prices so high that the yield is negative; buyers of the bonds who hold them to maturity are guaranteed to lose money."

Oh dear what with this and the post i made on nomura - http://nickhorslen.blogspot.co.uk/search?q=nomura you do have to wonder who is in the know and who is on the make. The EU and the european bonds are a ticking time bomb, thinks in a large part to the euro as much as the GFC.

Tuesday, August 08, 2017

Free speech like free will, such vague constructs as google and ts employees are demonstrating

Such a shame that it makes the issue of women and individual as well as group equality subjective when we know it is objective and needs justice.

https://medium.com/@Cernovich/full-james-damore-memo-uncensored-memo-with-charts-and-cites-339f3d2d05f

And more to follow on this guys PhD in biological systems and the impact for the CEO of Google
https://www.ft.com/content/30c29a8a-7c50-11e7-9108-edda0bcbc928

Google chief steps into gender debate with engineer’s sacking

Sundar Pichai has avoided controversy, but now forced to confront Silicon Valley issue

Mr Pichai acted quickly to quell a controversy that was threatening to engulf his company — and stepped squarely into the middle of one of Silicon Valley’s most heated debates. The storm blew up over the weekend after a 3,500-word internal memo from a Google engineer went public. Written by James Damore

#JamesDamore

Tuesday, August 01, 2017

a post for my own birthday


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/01/eec-britain-membership-european-economic-community-1961-archive

Listen to the experts - farming and trading post brexit


https://policyexchange.org.uk/publication/farming-tomorrow




Friday, July 21, 2017

Brexit negotiation getting to the meaty stuff already!

https://www.ft.com/content/43d34b32-6dfb-11e7-bfeb-33fe0c5b7eaa

Extentions to free movement during transition and beyond!

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

Junker junking it

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/furious-jean-claude-juncker-lashes-out-at-ridiculous-european-parliament/ar-BBDLmaM

Monday, July 03, 2017

Social media and tech giants, can they connect with the little people!

The debate roles on:

Big Tech is cut off from the real world
The public worries about the economic and social effects of technology

"...........
 All this is true when it comes to Big Tech today. “Silicon Valley talks mainly to itself,” says Vivek Wadhwa, a software entrepreneur and fellow at Carnegie Mellon University. “It’s all about connections here, and nobody wants to take on the big issues for fear of offending someone important.” Indeed, too many attempts at public “engagement” just end up making Silicon Valley executives seem more, rather than less, out of touch (think not only of Uber’s epic mistakes, but also of more subtle examples such as Mark Zuckerberg’s rambling, 6,000 word letter addressing the topic of fake news).

The public worries about the economic and social effects of technology, and those worries are not going away. Some investors are even baking them into the valuations. “Big Tech and Silicon Valley have been among the most politically insulated sectors in the S&P 500, while financials and energy have been among the most closely scrutinised.

Investors would be well-advised to think about how these roles may reverse in the current administration,” read a note from Strategas Research put out last week. Fang executives should take heed.

......"
https://www.ft.com/content/3d5425ac-5dbf-11e7-b553-e2df1b0c3220

Saturday, July 01, 2017

Neil deGrasse Tyson explanation of development leaders

The Neil deGrasse Tyson  argument about space in here is so valuable to all wider economic and political thinking IMHO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tJZdCKLd9U


EU EC Troika and global institions with no reverse gears!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGt82RFfg3U

Published on 5 May 2017
What happened in Greece during the crisis? And what happens when you take on the establishment?

In this extensive interview, former finance minister of Greece Yanis Varoufakis, talks about his new book Adults In The Room – My battle with Europe's deep establishment.

In short, in accountable groups with no reverse gear are happy to drive others into a wall so long as they don't have to sit in that car too!

2007/8 GFC, QE, ECB, IMF, EC Troika  lack of trust and the rise of extremes in Europe.

He doesn't mention Breixt but he implies he understands why it happened and that it was probably wise.

Thursday, June 29, 2017

The EU justification for expenditure, a decade long story in the making.

Brexit is forcing not only a re-budgeting exercise but a new level of accountability, all 27 will be asking questions of Brussels and the men in charge:

https://www.ft.com/content/222b7d4c-5b59-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b

Brexit set to blow hole in common EU budget, Brussels warns

Paper suggests ways to fill gap, including taxes and overhaul of farm spending



They flag the challenge of recruitment, odd?


".........
    While Brussels will present more detailed proposals next year, the paper sets out five broad reform “scenarios”, including scaling back the budget, establishing a system where groups of member states would establish common pots of money for particular projects, and a “radical redesign”.

........."

How the narrative and discourse goes will be interesting, of course they blame has to be anywhere but Brussels.

Billionaire moonshots for the future world we need!

A good read http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/column-like-not-billionaires-shaping-direction-discovery/

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Hong Kong 20yrs on, a kind of Brexit of its day. Chris Patten essay

Should be worth a read:

https://www.ft.com/content/da30586a-5b25-11e7-b553-e2df1b0c3220


Monday, June 26, 2017

From Greece to Italian banks to LuxLeaks there is much to the EU

We will watch this unfold on the road to 2020,

LukLeaks https://www.ft.com/content/de228b90-3632-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3

and Junker especially but Greece and Italian banks for others and the ECB
https://www.ft.com/content/71ece778-5a53-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b

#LuxLeak

Parliamentary democracy vs referendums, the route for the UK

A good read on how we got her, why we need to stick to current path but think about future choices and future process:

https://www.ft.com/content/74d42df2-da1b-3c43-938d-e3b6c93a50ca

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Shining new lights on the EU

Well not so new, but more in focus is what they will become through brexit and beyond

https://www.ft.com/content/5e64e96c-55bc-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f

Angela Merkel says she is open to the idea of giving the eurozone a single finance minister and a common budget, offering conditional support to one of French President Emmanuel Macron’s signature policies.


Ms Merkel’s caution reflects suspicion in Germany that French-led eurozone deepening could lead to German taxpayers having to shoulder common debts. She knows she is taking a political risk, especially with parliamentary elections in September.


Exports to the UK, Germany’s biggest market after the US and France, fell last year by 3.5 per cent, with much of the decline coming after the June 23 Brexit referendum.
However, with global exports booming Mr Kempf said the German economy was in a “very good” condition with industrial orders at their highest level in six years.
Ifo, the economic think-tank, on Wednesday predicted economic growth of 1.8 per cent this year and 2 per cent for 2018. 

Monday, June 19, 2017

Grexit

Greece on hold still!

https://www.ft.com/content/bf7db18a-5278-11e7-bfb8-997009366969

The muted reaction made clear that no magic solution has been found. Euclid Tsakalotos, Greece’s finance minister, said he had not wanted “to make the perfect the enemy of the good”. Poul Thomsen, director of the IMF’s European Department, said: “This is not the first best solution.”

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Post Election2017 well well well!?!

a good read, so many vectors, age, demographic, brexit and political vectors!

Older voters less reliable, the young turned out, and Remainers get their revenge

https://www.ft.com/content/a2c3980a-502c-11e7-a1f2-db19572361bb

Monday, June 12, 2017

Election2017 own goals and more!

https://www.ft.com/content/283dd902-4f59-11e7-a1f2-db19572361bb

From Brexit to Youth to who won and the SNP what a mixed bag.

In short the public vot to punish as much as praise or prop up. If you invite the nation to vote on your narrow issue you can bet they will vote on everything else.

I sensed, have no data for it, but the media and BBC in particular as I watch that the most, thought a landslide was likely and did their best to present everything they could to reduce that but even they wouldnt have expected what happened, nor caused it.

The young, housing and NHS along with Brexit makes it a time for a govt or national unity and reconsiliation, without it anyone could win next time!

Six myths of the UK election

Was the result a vote for a ‘soft’ Brexit and did the young make the difference?

A true TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE play!

Good for peoples health, good for people pocket and good for the planet.


https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25795-going-vegetarian-halves-co2-emissions-from-your-food/

http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-environ-020411-130608

Cut your carbon footprint, eat less meat or even no meat and think of the sentient beings, the ethic especially of industrial animal farming. 25% of emissions come from food production.

Thursday, June 08, 2017

UK and France, the common and the difference

The charts in here will be interesting to revisit, the closing comment is especially interesting:

"With higher unemployment, France has more potential to maintain its recovery than has the UK."

https://www.ft.com/content/f372cbb8-4a96-11e7-a3f4-c742b9791d43

Polling day 2017

Seems like only yesterday since the UK GE of 2010 and 2015 and today will be yesterday tomorrow.

https://www.ft.com/content/54650cfe-4bac-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b
https://www.ft.com/content/54650cfe-4bac-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b

Everyone seems nervous to call it but the truth is the public just want progress and the majority want the govt to get on with it. Labour fixing themselves is unlikely to happen before 2022 so I'm not sure we will see a labour govt before 2030 now.

Whats for sure the Conservatives are going to be held to account on Brexit and on the deficit, regardless of any improvement in the global economy or not. I'm not holding my breath!

Monday, June 05, 2017

Election2017 last 4 days

Lots of spectulation after an overly bold poll at the start and perhaps overly bold change towards the end. The question is do labout get smashed or just pasted and how do then fight among themselves for the next election.

The re-leavers my be the releaf for some

"According to a YouGov survey published earlier this month, 23% of people questioned were classed as "Re-Leavers" - those who voted to Remain in the EU but think that the government has a duty to leave, and 45% were "Hard Leavers" who want out."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40092210

But there are bold claims all around:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/comrade-corbyns-palace-coup-53j5wvvrs?shareToken=00429c067a8f318560e691765ddefb84

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21722886-labour-would-do-little-reverse-tories-regressive-plans-britains-poor-face-another-round

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21722886-labour-would-do-little-reverse-tories-regressive-plans-britains-poor-face-another-round?fsrc=scn%2Ffb%2Fte%2Fbl%2Fed%2Fmoneywhereyourmouthisbritainspoorfaceanotherroundofpainfulbenefitcuts

https://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20170603_BRC809_0.png

https://www.ft.com/content/304cc976-47ae-11e7-8d27-59b4dd6296b8

If the re-leavers %age is right and they vote it will be 360 seats and massive majority, if those who voted brexit just to get rid of cameron vote the other way then it will be marginal. I suspect the former!

Thursday, May 25, 2017

Do markets react to information, do voters respond to poll predictions OR...

with the learning from the last election and polling debacle lead to a more accurate prediction, we will see:

https://www.ft.com/content/f61c219a-3f09-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58

2015 vs 20yrs before, 2017 vs 2015, has the trend continued?

Project fear V2.0 or not project fear: reality of forecasts and assumptions!

https://www.ft.com/content/ba31120a-4088-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2

ECB vs BOE


Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Merkel and Macron - EU, two countries or more!?

If Le Pen gets in then no one said they didnt try and delay and delay....

https://www.ft.com/content/b8a0c2a4-3724-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e

"Since the crises, these cost divergences have ceased to grow, yet not reversed. This means that if domestic demand in the French or Italian economies were to be strong enough to eliminate that part of unemployment due to deficient demand, their current accounts would go into significant deficit. If they are also to run balanced fiscal positions, their private sectors must also run substantial financial deficits (excesses of spending over income). But the French and Italian private sectors have run persistent surpluses, even at low interest rates. Thus substantial fiscal tightening is likely to cause significant domestic slowdowns. Germany’s proposed solution to divergences of competitiveness is for everybody to follow its own model. It has succeeded: in 2016, all members of the eurozone, bar France, ran a current account surplus. The eurozone's current account shifted from a deficit of 1.2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008 to a surplus of 3.4 per cent in 2016. If France is driven into prolonged competitive deflation, Marine Le Pen might become president next time. Mr Macron must ask Angela Merkel whether the German chancellor is willing to risk this. Reform in France is essential. So is development of risk-sharing institutions. But the eurozone also needs a big jump in relative German wages. Will that happen? I fear not."

 martin.wolf@ft.com

Election 2017 UK Polling

This is going to be an interesting month to watch the data, analysis and narrative not to mention expectations, excitement or whatever:

https://www.ft.com/content/e9db20f2-398c-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

some good data journalism in here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39927866

looking for some good visualisations to come!

#Election2017 
#UKpolling
#UKpolling2017

Monday, May 15, 2017

Just like with Hollande some years ago, hopes of reform are high in France and EU!

Lets revisit the excitement in 2022 shall we?!

https://www.ft.com/content/76ea7f30-394f-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec?hubRefSrc=email&utm_source=lfemail&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=lfnotification#lf-content=196038406:690269779

Wednesday, May 03, 2017

Brexit get out of jail free card!

Its good that the UK public will be asking how can we help the EU countries with our £100Bn donation, I know it would go a long way in the developing world as it would equate to 10years of DFID ODA funding which save millions of lives.

There is a lot of information out there about how the French and German money is spent by the EU and they are not likely to be paying more in future so I guess they will be asking the same questions as us.

I know the Dutch, Spanish and Scandinavian countries will, as they are the ones likely to pick up most of the bill in the future when there are only 27 countries paying in.

A good read> https://europa.eu/european-union/topics/budget_en also> https://europa.eu/european-union/file/1088/download_en?token=AvThyJAT I think the transparency will be growing in the coming years> http://ec.europa.eu/budget/fts/index_en.htm #accountability #Budget4Results

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Self

"“If you find yourself criticizing other people, you’re probably doing it out of Resistance. When we see others beginning to live their authentic selves, it drives us crazy if we have not lived out our own. Individuals who are realized in their own lives almost never criticize others. If they speak at all, it is to offer encouragement. Watch yourself. Of all the manifestations of Resistance, most only harm ourselves. Criticism and cruelty harm others as well.”
— Steven Pressfield, War of Art"

yanis varoufakis brexit advice theresa may avoid negotiating

This aligns with much that I have posted in the last 10 yrs about Greece and the EU.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/yanis-varoufakis-brexit-advice-theresa-may-avoid-negotiating/

Nick


Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Jimmy Wales new venture is going to be one to watch and revisit!



https://www.ft.com/content/2590013e-2908-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7

Wikipedia’s Jimmy Wales to set up global news website

‘Wikitribune’ to use paid and citizen journalists in venture to combat fake news

Monday, April 24, 2017

AI and drones igniting the ideas of flying cars, again!

Lots of people posting this:

http://interestingengineering.com/worlds-first-all-electric-vertical-take-off-flying-car-nails-test-flight/

"Its getting a lot of attention and Im sure it is the route to a new form of transport but having flown small aircraft myself, I can say without a rudder and trim not to mention ailerons it will not make for a comfortable journey for a person in anything other than the simplest most perfect weather conditions. If it is fully autonomous with AI control then it might just get beyond a niche mkt (deliveries) towards mass adoption but its not a car. Without wheels or an engine it cant taxi even off the runway. They haven't carried the weight of a human not even a pilot. So seeing it do more than be a drone for now is difficult. The human factors of flying are real critical and that means, weather, visibility, navigation, radio comms, heating, locations for take off and landing, height restrictions ie above 500 feet, emergency landing procedures (capabilities) are all little details to be factored in."


This will make you smile:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvWbaESpHm8

Ingenuity and engineering, the mother of invention:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRZNLBL7Px4

The road or should I say the sky is the limit, except flying is and has to be safe. Its safer than driving and that because less people can fly and pilots pass more than just a road test!


AI, Jobs and the artisan human

Lots of talk about AI and job losses, which will come. However the evolutionary shift will not be a straight switch or replacement but a transition for both technology and humans. If AI and robots deliver they will do the economy and work more efficiently and effectively, growing GDP ww massively. People will live off of that improvement and wealth and become what they always were, humans!

The artisan in literature, art, design, science and learning won't go away.

Simple things will be valued even more, simple is usually not so simple thats the beauty of what people alone can do> https://www.facebook.com/interestingengineering/videos/vb.139188202817559/1516003595136006/


Friday, April 21, 2017

The artisan and the gig economy, symbiotic old and new!

As the management and entrepreneurial mantra goes:

The founder startup entrpreneur starts as the artisan (knows whats what has the skill) turns in to the hero (employs and excites people) if they are not careful they become the pain in the arse (by not delegating or delegating while looking over the shoulders and interfering) but if they are good they quickly become the strategic leader (employing the right people, empowering and letting go to focus on the big challenges ahead, the future, the step change). Simples!

But so many cant do it!

https://www.ft.com/content/c2d971bc-24f5-11e7-a34a-538b4cb30025

General election2017: Everyone second guessing and cautioning for different reasons



https://www.ft.com/content/d8bbdb92-2616-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16

"Meanwhile some moderate Labour MPs are also adopting the desperate tactic of insisting that Mrs May is unbeatable, hoping to reassure voters they can vote for a competent local MP without any risk of Mr Corbyn becoming prime minister. John Woodcock, MP for Barrow, wrote in the North West Evening Mail: “In the unlikely event Mr Corbyn was in a position to try to form a government (and let’s face it, we are 20 points behind in the polls under his leadership, it is not going to happen) I would refuse to endorse him as prime minister in any parliamentary vote that would follow.” Another Labour MP said that many of his colleagues were telling voters on the doorstep not to worry about the risk of Mr Corbyn winning the election. Another said: “We simply try not to talk about him at all.” And all the while, the Conservatives are drawing up a target list of more than 70 Labour seats where the sitting MP has a majority of less than 7,000."

Umm!!??

Labour MP's wanting to win their seat but not have their party win to ensure the voters vote for them and not worry that they might bring in chaos!

https://www.ft.com/content/d8bbdb92-2616-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16

The torys saying they might not win so everyone get voting for us.

Libs seeing their opportunity.

The SNP can top last time.

The opposition have to fight themselves.

As unpredictable as ever but is FUD reigns it will be a landslide.

If labour lose they lose corbyn, if corbyn wins they have the mess to rule and will lose within 5 years.

One day we might get back to normal.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Bezos and amazon 20 years in!

A short or long 20 years, the model for retailers is the one to watch still but with Jack Ma and Alibaba and Satya Nadella and Microsoft Azure Bezos has plenty to keep a careful eye on for the next 20 years

https://www.ft.com/content/a304a59e-2425-11e7-a34a-538b4cb30025

http://www.alibabagroup.com/en/global/home

https://cloud.microsoft.com/en-gb/customer-stories/project-premonition/

AWS will have to fight to keep up with Azure and every retailer in the world will want to see AWS go away. Get focused MSFT! #Azure

1997 seems so far away now, I was there warning europe to wake up to the web https://www.microsoft.com/misc/features/features_eChristmas.htm we have our players but for search, retail and social media the big boys are all american!