Thursday, December 01, 2016

Big is brutual, small is beautiful - India, break into little gems!

India like the USA is too big and needs to be broken up into more accountable more governable, more transparent and competing entities. Each lab doing their own experiments will bring the right innovation and development to the fore as best practice to leverage.

The same applies to China, Russia, Brazil and the EU. Finding a sensible way to say, come on guys the game has changed lets give it our best shot, thats the role of the next generation of young leaders!

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21711040-narendra-modi-needs-take-measures-mitigate-damage-his-rupee-reform-has-done-indias

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Mark Carney getting ready for the deal of the century!

Carney warns EU against freezing out the City

BoE governor says continent will lose out if it blocks ‘investment banker of Europe’

https://www.ft.com/content/e2d4801c-b72a-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62


Reform in China, reality will dawn, with or without the hammering from others!

Political and economic reform in China is a long road and it wont be held back much longer

https://www.ft.com/content/27a7eca8-b6c0-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62

Purpose and effective purpose

The business community get the TBL https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PL3ZOd0y-i_r7PEN-4-rSXLaKQIQBFxqqV&v=tv4p6itlKAE but getting to real effective purpose requires more though on the TBL+EA

http://effective-altruism.com/ea/5e/efficient_charity_do_unto_others/

Only with careful analysis, data, thought can the best of the young generation determine where they make the most difference and become the best version of themselves that they can be!

Lesswrong, good faith, resolving conflict - double crux from CFAR

Applied rationality, where the resolution is the desired outcome.

http://lesswrong.com/lw/o6p/double_crux_a_strategy_for_resolving_disagreement/




Monday, November 28, 2016

Brexit negotiators identify UK’s trump cards London is confident it has a strong hand — the question is how to use it

2017 will be very interesting year in terms of leverage and negotiations, the french and german elections that is!

https://www.ft.com/content/44ad7fba-b48c-11e6-ba85-95d1533d9a62

not to mention the attitudes of Sweden and Poland vs Italy and Greece.

Friday, November 25, 2016

Fulston Manor School GPP MDG 2013

Reminder of 3 years ago http://www.fulstonmanor.kent.sch.uk/news/?pid=8&nid=1&storyid=186

Thursday, November 24, 2016

More evidence of interest in the SDG's

Business are waking up to the SDG's but is that out of self-interest or broader interest of those most in need? We will see!
http://www.wbcsd.org/Clusters/Social-Impact/News/Business-and-the-SDGs-Role-opportunity-and-responsibility

EA Effective Altruism

Further reading for those on the EA path towards evidence of effective interventions!

http://effective-altruism.com/ea/5e/efficient_charity_do_unto_others/

Mosquirix the Malaria busting vaccine

Hoping very much that the impact begins in the field.

2018 and the following 5 years cant come fast enough!

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/five-reason-why-malaria-vaccine-pilots-may-game-changer-seth-berkley?trk=v-feed&trk=hp-feed-article-title-share

Malaria killing 1200 every single day!! and it always has!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Keeping check on the whipping boys, interesting point!

https://www.ft.com/content/ceb118c4-b16d-11e6-9c37-5787335499a0

Arnie on pollution

Worth watching ArnieScwarts approach here https://www.facebook.com/pg/attn/videos/?ref=page_internal 23/11/16 and some of the other videos. Causes and campaigns on all sides are changing!

Monday, November 21, 2016

Social graph to superintelligence

From Kate Crawford to Nick Bostrom, from Demis Hassibis to Toby Ord and William MaCaskill, not to forget Sam Harris my weekend at oxford university updated my view not only on social graph, something ive blog posted on before but also the superintelligence issues not just about todays 7.5Bn people but the hundreds of billions of people in the future. Get this stuff right and we can not only help those in the bottom billion who want to help themselves today but we can help all the hundreds of billions in the future. This stuff, a foundation, is too important to get wrong and so valuable to get right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_graph

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vdx4AVfCJcA

#superintelligence
#AI
#Socialgraph
#EA
#GlobalGoals
#WakingUp

Friday, November 18, 2016

The decline and fall of terrorism!!

This year’s Global Terrorism Index reinforces the fact that terrorism is a highly concentrated form of violence, mostly committed in a small number of countries by a small number of groups. However, while the number of deaths is smaller this year, the impact and fear of terrorism continues to grow – most significantly in OECD member countries.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/terrorism-on-rise-developed-countries-2016-index

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Paul Polman Unilever CEO - leadership in sustainability!

This is leadership in the 21st century! How good he is at it and how he does it will be very interesting as a model for others from here.

https://www.ft.com/content/e6696b4a-8505-11e6-8897-2359a58ac7a5


When Polman became chief executive of Unilever in 2009, he was able to put this thinking into action. Almost immediately he said that he only wanted investors who shared his view that Unilever needed to shepherd the Earth’s future as carefully as it did its own revenues and profits. As one of his first acts, he announced that the company would no longer publish quarterly profit updates, as they encouraged short-term thinking. Simon Zadek, a long-time British sustainability campaigner, likens this ending of quarterly reporting to the 1997 Labour government’s grant of independence to the Bank of England. It was more than just tinkering or public relations, he says. “This was a new business model.”




Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Technology, social, economic and environmental impact of HS2?

Must revisit this each year on the road to 2033, or do i mean track to 2033!

https://www.ft.com/content/b6c8e60e-aa99-11e6-ba7d-76378e4fef24

Global goals, targets and opportunities for all



https://www.theguardian.com/the-gef-partner-zone/2016/nov/08/a-wealth-of-opportunities


Each and every one of us – business included – depends on common global resources and we all have an important role to play in leading the change.
Business must continue to step up, and the collective global community must also come together to move forward. We have cleared the first hurdle in agreeing on a sustainable pathway forward, but now it’s time to work together to implement meaningful and lasting change.

Monday, November 14, 2016

SDG, COP21, Business commission

DRAFT Note to self from another FB discussion:

On those issues and add that it will require a focus on each of the 17 SDG's in their own right. Drilling down on each of the 169 targets underneath them and the threads that unite and integrate the whole framework.
http://www.globalgoals.org/ their video on the home page here shows the importance of numbers so thats a starter for EA. Their chosen theme song as you'll hear is "I WANT TO SEE NUMBERS IN ACTION" thats surely EA. Also the issues of billion$ to trillion$ is also about biggest bang for the buck, incomes AND outcomes, so lots of possibilities. Outcomes are no long earnings in the triple bottom line world of business, not that enough business people thnk that way yet, but EA's can help change that "Doing good business better". An EA approach that both compliments and unpicks some of the priorities set by others would be very useful. There is a 15yrs of road ahead so it doesnt need to be a quick fix but a constant process of discovery and scrutiny. My other thought on what was said online is yes be careful of the CSR spin agents. Top down and bottom up the SDG's have a corporate play from everything to do with all the stakeholders, from being able to attract and retain the best of the young generation of workforce/managers/leaders to attracting the right investors, to, not only serving the customers at the front door of the business but collaborating and influencing all the suppliers in the supply chain at the back door. Its all on their radar, from Reputation (more so than branding) and compliance to market leadership and operational efficiency and effectiveness is key and EA's and SDG's have a role for all corps going forwards. Plenty of good content from the WEF on this, especially through some of the players like Polman and Branson at www.bteam.org, McKinsey were in there with them at Davos. http://businesscommission.org/news/new-global-commission-to-put-business-at-the-centre-of-sustainable-development - http://businesscommission.org/ - http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/business-society-and-the-future-of-capitalism

Also a pointer to http://www.wbcsd.org/Overview/About-us  At the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) over 200 of the world’s biggest companies are focused on addressing global commons issues through two key pillars: catalysing systemic change across key economy sectors and changing the rules of the game to ensure that businesses are measured by their true cost, true profits and true value. via next post after this one.

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Environment and SDG's hand in hand

12 key points that unite the COP21 and SDG agenda!


Saturday, November 12, 2016

Peter Thiel and more disruption!

Like his old partner Elon Musk, Peter Thiel is certainly continuing on the disruptive innovation line or sorts!

Tech elite discovers it may need Peter Thiel

Investor was shunned for supporting Trump but is now a key conduit for his industry

https://www.ft.com/content/c2dcf2be-a850-11e6-8898-79a99e2a4de6

The pai and the gain of Brexit for the EU and UK

This guys credential from europe look pretty good so his article makes for a good analysis of the potential situation:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economically-balanced-brexit-agreement-by-daniel-gros-2016-11


Friday, November 11, 2016

Millennials and the expectations and norms from before

A food read!
http://www.lifehack.org/articles/work/8-reasons-millennials-seem-lazy-work.html

EA, Deepmind, Sustainable development AND the Triple Bottom Line!

Absolute pleasure last night to be in on the conversation with Prof Peter Singer via Skype at Oriel College Oxford last night, cant wait for next weekend now www.EAgxOxford.com Looking forwards to Demis especially from my tech background, also Will for his amazing young leadership and Derek, well, just up there in a space Im still learning. If you want to see the future start with Demis polymath creator of DeepMind and themepark, yes believe it or not the future of AI comes from a british kid, a chess playing gamer, google snapped him up from london for a cool £400M, an amazing speaker :

Demis Hassabis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbsqaJwpu6A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xN1d3qHMIEQ

Prof Derek Parfit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTUrwO9-B_I

Prof William Macaskill leading EA with his book "Doing good better"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2SwES3r9Kg

Plenty of balance across the three from different angles.

Then in addition to EA there is Prof Jeff Sachs and his whole series of 70 x 10min lectures, just watch 1 a night for 2 months or all of them in just one week!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dho6sQ7NMRI&list=PLExYXELRcSgHwl28h9Oyipk_FmKd7nLby subscribe!!

My own little contribution is on https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/people-planet-prosperity-light-arrives-new-everyday-sets-nick-horslen

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

The end of dynasty - USElection2016


https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLK4elntcUEy1a8P47lFQDg1oHoNq1BdYk&v=8AYrxd5gExo

The narrative is catching up from the various groups and their chosen signifiers in the discourse!

Social economic political directions and analysis

Finding time to read the research from various groups is such a challenge!

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/the-important-of-place-explaining-the-characteristics-underpinning-the-brexit-vote-across-different-parts-of-the-uk/ #Brexit

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/living-standards-2016/ #hollowingoutmiddleclasses

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/examining-an-elephant-globalisation-and-the-lower-middle-class-of-the-rich-world/ #globalisation much like Jeff Sachs view

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/stagnation-generation-the-case-for-renewing-the-intergenerational-contract/ #Millenials and #intergenerational

The inflection point of what was signed up for in 2015 vs what is kicking off in 2016 is going to be very interesting historically, which will have the biggest effect, the 2015 intention or the 2016+ action!


The end of dynasty!

With the news from the USA today https://www.ft.com/content/1f58d530-a5a9-11e6-8898-79a99e2a4de6 it appears that the past was not enough. The politicians, the press, the pollsters and pundits all used their choice data and narrative but in the end they were beaten.

Was this careful management of change, was this a movement, was this allowed to happen or was it a victory taken. All the political rhetoric is going to have a line drawn in the sand and now the action needs to begin.

Im sad that we dont have a women leading the USA, Germany and the UK specifically because of the need for female leadership and the equality of women. However I now wonder will the first female president of the USA be black? That is a bet worth placing!

https://www.ft.com/content/1f58d530-a5a9-11e6-8898-79a99e2a4de6

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2016/11/watch-out-world

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37920175

People be nice to each other! Take actions for one reason, you know its the right thing and the evidence ensures it focused on being effective!


Saturday, November 05, 2016

The NEXT Economy. Powerful stuff!

This discussion shines a light on saying "if the next economy can put even more of the wealth into pay cheques of more people everywhere then we all win!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nwnGbbCg0g&app=desktop

A good summary is in here http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/how-work-will-change-in-the-next-economy 

Friday, November 04, 2016

November 4th 2016 a date of note! #COP21

Lets look back to this date often!
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/paris-agreement/celebrate-the-entry-into-force-of-the-paris-agreement-with-us/

"The historic Paris Climate Change Agreement adopted in 2015 is entering into force on 4 November. "

Thursday, November 03, 2016

EA - Effective Altruism: Doing good better!

Having followed EA from what felt like early days, it does really feel like its moved to a new level and their projection for 10 yrs and 20 yrs out are quite extraordinary.
https://www.eaglobal.org/talks/opening-keynote-toby-ord-and-will-macaskill/

For sure more people need to check out EA and the key parts of the platform and players like www.givewell.org and https://founderspledge.com/exit_stories. Ive blogged in Givewell quite a bit here and on FB and twitter, other parts of the machinery like 8000hours I hope to earn more about next weekend in oxford.

Do listen to William MacCaskill, he is an extrodinary young man and prof of philosophy.
https://www.eaglobal.org/talks/opening-keynote-toby-ord-and-will-macaskill/

http://eagxoxford.com/

For me the evidence and scale effectiveness interest me greatly in line with all my interests in international development, health and technology. See my LinkedIN post Oct2016 on TBL and SDG's

The humility and the JFDI approach offers great progress, quickly!


Monday, October 31, 2016

Canada and the EU show what a new trade deal can do!

Useful video to improve familiarity with trade deals & all their up and down sides, not that they want to cover the down sides at kick off. http://europa.eu/!FN83jX

Of course no mention of tariffs, perhaps no tariffs at all, just more open and fairer access to markets to aid collaboration. 

Market share ambitions are not promised to anyone, the counter being no protections are promised, they are just there to compete for & to allow customers to decide whats best now so that they tell the providers where they need to do better next time! 

#CETA 

Free markets, free market access, transparent accountable

http://pm.gc.ca/eng/news/2016/10/30/canada-and-eu-sign-historic-trade-agreement-during-eu-canada-summit

Canadas - Quick Facts
  • In addition, the leaders issued a joint statement following the Summit that outlines commitments and key areas of focus for Canada and the EU in coming years. The statement focused on shared values and interests including peace, democracy, prosperity, protection of human rights, rule of law, environment, inclusion and cultural diversity.
  • CETA will provide Canada with access to the EU’s more than 500 million consumers. Canadian workers throughout the country stand to benefit significantly from increased access to this 28 country market which generates $20 trillion in annual economic activity.
  • The elimination of EU tariffs will assist sectors in every region of Canada, including advanced manufacturing, agriculture and agri-food, automotive, chemicals and plastics, fish and seafood, forestry and value-added wood products, metal and mineral products and technology.
  • EU-Canada summits are held as agreed upon by the Prime Minister of Canada and the presidents of the European Council and European Commission.
  • This year marks the 40th anniversary of the signing of the first Canada‑EU Framework Agreement (1976) and the establishment of the EU’s diplomatic mission in Ottawa.
  • Canada’s trade and investment relations continue to grow with the EU, the world’s second largest single market, and Canada’s second largest bilateral trading partner. Of Canada’s 21 priority markets for investment attraction, 11 are in the EU.


Note to self: Must look through relative sizes of trade flows by country https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_bis_e.htm?

Canada and the EU show what a new trade deal can do!

Useful video to improve familiarity with trade deals & all their up and down sides, not that they want to cover the down sides at kick off. http://europa.eu/!FN83jX

Of course no mention of tariffs, perhaps no tariffs at all, just more open and fairer access to markets to aid collaboration. 

Market share ambitions are not promised to anyone, the counter being no protections are promised, they are just there to compete for & to allow customers to decide whats best now so that they tell the providers where they need to do better next time! 

#CETA 

Free markets, free market access, transparent accountable

http://pm.gc.ca/eng/news/2016/10/30/canada-and-eu-sign-historic-trade-agreement-during-eu-canada-summit

Canadas - Quick Facts
  • In addition, the leaders issued a joint statement following the Summit that outlines commitments and key areas of focus for Canada and the EU in coming years. The statement focused on shared values and interests including peace, democracy, prosperity, protection of human rights, rule of law, environment, inclusion and cultural diversity.
  • CETA will provide Canada with access to the EU’s more than 500 million consumers. Canadian workers throughout the country stand to benefit significantly from increased access to this 28 country market which generates $20 trillion in annual economic activity.
  • The elimination of EU tariffs will assist sectors in every region of Canada, including advanced manufacturing, agriculture and agri-food, automotive, chemicals and plastics, fish and seafood, forestry and value-added wood products, metal and mineral products and technology.
  • EU-Canada summits are held as agreed upon by the Prime Minister of Canada and the presidents of the European Council and European Commission.
  • This year marks the 40th anniversary of the signing of the first Canada‑EU Framework Agreement (1976) and the establishment of the EU’s diplomatic mission in Ottawa.
  • Canada’s trade and investment relations continue to grow with the EU, the world’s second largest single market, and Canada’s second largest bilateral trading partner. Of Canada’s 21 priority markets for investment attraction, 11 are in the EU.

Friday, October 28, 2016

Post Brexit (vote if not actual exit) narratives are changing! I wonder why!!??

Here are some examples that pop up as the UK produces stronger GDP growth and shows growing optimism from investment from abroad:

Guardian on CAP: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/28/grouse-shooting-estates-shored-up-by-millions-in-subsidies

Tim Harford - on freedom to trade: https://www.ft.com/content/8705e392-96ce-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582?segmentId=ba4d2695-98da-a596-8fa6-6cf65dfd72ac

The BBC - Big Bang; the unique sustainable strength of the city: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37751599

Some would say, the nature of the way some are falling in line by trying not to say what they have to say and by ensuring they catch and remain relevant is very interesting to observe!

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

official from IEA: Renewabled beat Coal to #1 energy producer top spot!

in 2015!!

Official from IEA https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2016/october/iea-raises-its-five-year-renewable-growth-forecast-as-2015-marks-record-year.html

https://www.ft.com/content/09a1f984-9a1d-11e6-8f9b-70e3cabccfae

So much further to go, quickly, for baseload and for climate change mitigation!

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Bristol Channel and Kepler want to do a king Kanute, NOT!

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kepler-claims-tide-is-turning-for-power-in-the-severn-estuary-907ch7bwr

Interesting! Being something of a sailor, (a qualified yacht day skipper) after Canada with the Bay of Fundy, the Bristol channel has the 2nd highest tidal range in the world at 12M. Engineering for and exploiting neaps and springs MHWN & MHWS would be pretty cool for the UK and the planet. Once again these benefits like solar and photosynthesis ie sustenance for all life in general, we have the sun AND the moon to thank for this tidal power. Lets use it, so long as we don't adversely effect ecosystems, and I don't mean the annual Severn-Bore surfers, although the great Tsunami of 1607 does come to mind as well!

Monday, October 17, 2016

How are ordinary people rewarded as countries help their counterparts abroad? #Globalisation

Very good read from Prof Sachs:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/10/16/the-truth-about-trade/UWtu8jpAo8LTsTFlffaZ0K/story.html

Applies to europe and its single market, where is the pain and the gain most felt. Seem obvious, hence their problems. Then there are the BRIC's cosy'ing up to each other again.

Transparency and accountability is the key, not hiding behind size and complexity. Incompetence or corruption, you decide in the context of what Trade deals are and what they do and dont do!

The rewards should be through the taxes earned by govt, put back into more and better education, health and infrastructure. We need to help the poorest around the world and keep advancing the less poor and it shouldn't require dogma and politics just well planned policy.

Big brands getting it! PepsiCo goes healthy and ethical!

Social, economic and environmental effectiveness is dawning on everyone and as it does, outcomes and reputations are becoming so much more obvious to all. The citizens, the communities, the businesses and the governments all know they can not hide from their responsibilities. Its called perfect information, transparency and accountability follows!!

https://www.ft.com/content/43ebdbf0-918a-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78
PepsiCo is to spend billions of dollars to develop drinks and snacks and reformulate existing ones with lower sugar, salt and fat content, as consumers demand healthier options and regulatory pressure intensifies amid an obesity epidemic.

Compliance means regulation where needed, ethics, social, environmental and prosperity responsibility. Triple bottom line works for everyone. https://www.ft.com/content/43ebdbf0-918a-11e6-a72e-b428cb934b78

America votes November 8th 2016, 4 weeks time!

The next few weeks and especially the result will be very itneresting to see how much pull the past has for the future, the near past:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0KNku34G2Y

Hillary was always going to walk it in my view and I think in the republicans view, that why they let Trump stir it up and stir everyone else up into thinking otherwise!

I remember my posts for the previous two elections, how time flies. Obama did push for all he said.

http://nickhorslen.blogspot.co.uk/search?q=obama

Because or in spite. Politics and action.

Friday, October 14, 2016

London Tech investment

This will be interesting to watch unfold, huge VC and startup opportunites

SoftBank and Saudi Arabia plan $100bn tech fund

Partnership to be based in London will be investing over 5 years

https://www.ft.com/content/0370a5f4-9191-11e6-8df8-d3778b55a923

Global health data visualisation, for reference.

Good stuff, seen before but context interesting to observe develop

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/10/daily-chart-7?fsrc=scn/li/te/bl/ed/theglobalburdenofdisease

and dont  forget
http://ghdx.healthdata.org/

http://www.healthdata.org/data-visualization/health-related-sdgs



Floating currency - a good read!

Imagine being Italy, looking at Greece and then Germany and then saying: why are we here, who set our currency value for us in this very Italian situation?

https://www.ft.com/content/c8ebe416-914f-11e6-8df8-d3778b55a923

Phama: Rivers, Antibiotic resistance, supply chains and governance

In the context of TB in India and AMR around the world this issue is far bigger than just supply chain and good governance, it could have hugely negative impacts on global health and poverty eradication.

https://www.ft.com/content/8a7ed3a6-7128-11e6-a0c9-1365ce54b926

Monday, October 10, 2016

The retreat of mortality – 20th and 21st century trends David Coleman University of Oxford

Sometimes when researching issues you can stumble on real interesting presentation slides that just make you want to know more!

The retreat of mortality – 20th and 21st century trends David Coleman University of Oxford

http://media.podcasts.ox.ac.uk/spi/demographics/2012-02-02_coleman_mortality_slides.pdf